Mobile Stormtracker could be hitting the road later today.
EAST TEXAS (KLTV) -
There is a conditional threat of severe weather this afternoon north of I-20 including hail high winds and isolated tornadoes. The atmosphere is very conducive for severe thunderstorm development if a storm can develop. And there is the difficulty in today's forecast. For days now East Texas has been protected by what we call a cap, a layer of warm air just off the surface putting a lid on thunderstorm development.
This afternoon a weak disturbance will move across the area allowing for this cap to erode for a few hours this afternoon. This would allow any thunderstorm updraft to develop rapidly and would lead to a threat of severe weather.
Thankfully for us here in East Texas, there is very little converging of low level winds making lift across the area very minimal. This will keep thunderstorms from developing in most areas. However, with surface temperatures warming into the middle and upper 80s, isolated thunderstorms could develop much in the way they do in the summer time, as the earth heats up, air rises forming clouds and eventually storms. Now just like in the summertime the chances of this occurring where you live are very small and we will not know if a storm will develop until it actually begins to form.
Now for the bad news. If a storm was to develop, and that is a big if, it would take advantage of strong instability and wind shear meaning it would rapidly become severe. All aspects of severe weather would be possible with any storm that develops, including tornadoes. So we will be watching the visible satellite and radar very closely between Noon and 5PM in case a storm is able to develop. The good news is storms will probably not develop at all.
A cold front will move through the area early tomorrow. This front will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. All of East Texas is under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow with the main threat being strong gusty winds. Once the front moves through around midday, temperatures will drop significantly and much of East Texas will be getting ready for low temperatures in the 30s Friday and Saturday morning.